With Round One of the AMA U.S. Motocross championship occuring this Sunday, May 11, 2003 (yes, on Mother’s Day) at Glen Helen Raceway in San Bernardino, California, it is time to make MD’s fearless predictions about the outcome. This time, we are focusing solely on the 250 class.
The defending champion, of course, is Honda’s Ricky Carmichael. He won an unprecedented 24 out of 24 motos last year (yes, a perfect season). He has to be the shoe-in for a repeat title, correct? Well, things will be a bit more interesting for RC and all of us this year.
One rider in particular will make his debut in the 250 class while on an incredible roll. That man is Yamaha’s Chad Reed, winner of the last six AMA 250 Supercross races in a row (a total of 8 on the year). Reed is every bit as good outdoors as he is on a supercross track.
Two other riders largely missing from last year’s championship series are Suzuki’s Travis Pastrana and Kevin Windham (aboard a privateer Honda — rumored to be a full-factory machine).
Pastrana and Windham are two of the most naturally gifted riders in the history of this sport, but neither of them has shown the consistency necessary to win a championship (at least, since their days on a 125).
Another rider to watch is Suzuki’s Sebastien Tortelli. Tortelli is one of the great outdoor riders, who has run RC’s pace in the past. Tortelli also appears to be in love with his Suzuki, after his switch from Honda last year. Tortelli’s speed in supercross (before he was injured) was indeed surprising, and he appeared to be very much in tune with the yellow machine.
All of the other top riders in the series have been beaten outdoors, and beaten soundly, by Carmichael in the past. They are great riders, but they just haven’t shown what it takes to compete with RC on any given day, much less over the course of a season. Those riders include Yamaha’s David Vuillemin, Kawasaki’s Ezra Lusk (who is still mending from a supercross injury), Yamaha’s Tim Ferry and Honda’s Mike LaRocco. Tim Ferry would have to be the biggest threat from this group.
The outdoor nationals is about speed and conditioning. Another brutal Daytona supercross this year showed that Carmichael is the king of conditioning. He can literally go as fast on the last lap as he does on the first. If Carmichael stays healthy, he will win yet another Outdoor National championship this year in the 250 class.
On a race-by-race basis, only Reed, Pastrana, Tortelli and Windham appear to have the pure speed necessary to hang with Carmichael, and, among those, only Reed appears to have the conditioning to go hard for the whole moto (but, to be fair, we haven’t seen Windham race in over a year, and Pastrana and Tortelli have been virtually as absent with injuries). Don’t be surprised if these guys get podiums, and even the occasional moto win.
In the end, we come up with the following predictions for a finishing order in the 2003 AMA U.S. motocross championships:
- Ricky Carmichael (Honda)
- Chad Reed (Yamaha)
- Sebastien Tortelli (Suzuki)
- Tim Ferry (Yamaha)
- Travis Pastrana (Suzuki)
