As the 2006 MotoGP series gets underway this weekend at Jerez, you have to wonder whether we are about to witness yet another dominant performance by multi-time World champ Valentino Rossi aboard his Yamaha.
With the departure of veterans Max Biaggi, Alex Barros and others, and the arrival of rookies such as Dani Pedrosa, Chris Vermuelen and Casey Stoner there will be new contenders to deal with. With Bridgestone tires elevating the likes of Team Kawasaki and Team Suzuki (and making Ducati even stronger), there will also be new manufacturers vying for podium positions and wins. This could be one of the most interesting MotoGP series, yet.
How will it all shake out? You have to pick Rossi to take another World title this year, but behind him it gets much more interesting. At the end of last year, it looked like Honda men Nicky Hayden and Marco Melandri would be Rossi’s closest challengers this year. That may still prove to be the case, but pre-series testing indicates that Honda is struggling a bit with development of a new machine (tested primarily by Hayden up to this point), and even with development of last year’s machine (ridden by most of the other riders during pre-season testing). At the same time, the Bridgestone-shod bikes (Ducati, Kawasaki and Suzuki) are emerging as true contenders.
Part of Honda’s problem is a lack of experienced test riders. Despite Nicky Hayden’s obvious talents as a racer, he has yet to prove himself a top development rider . . . yet, Honda seems to be relying on him heavily in the development of its new MotoGP weaponry. Whether this can be blamed on Hayden or HRC engineers is irrelevant, at this point, but Honda may be playing catch-up early this series.
Yamaha has had its troubles in testing, as well. A serious problem with front-end chatter destroyed the lap times of both Rossi and Edwards at more than one track during the series break. Despite this, the Yamahas of Rossi and Edwards appear ready to be front runners from the first race onward.
The surprise this year is the re-emergence of old contenders in the form of Sete Gibernau (now with Ducati) and Shinya Nakano (still developing the Kawasaki MotoGP machine). How soon people forget that Gibernau was the primary challenger to Rossi just a couple of years ago — before a series of unfortunate circumstances (many beyond his control) destroyed his final season aboard a Honda in 2005. Gibernau has been fast at times aboard his new Ducati, but is still looking for consistency. We think he will find it and be in the fight for podium spots quite often this year.
No one doubts Nakano’s skill as a rider. His machinery has held him back in MotoGP, but the Kawasaki finally appears ready to compete at the front in 2006. The package includes more competitive Bridgestone tires this year. Indeed, Bridgestone had the upper hand on Michelin at more than one test in the last few months.
Of all the rookies, none is more highly anticipated than Danny Pedrosa. Moving straight to the top Repsol Honda squad, Pedrosa has been quicker than Hayden, at times, during testing. Pedrosa is diminutive, and lacks upper body strength, however, and this could pose a serious challenge to him aboard a MotoGP machine. If he can develop the endurance to go hard the entire race, Pedrosa will be on the podium repeatedly, and may even win races his rookie year.
Other prominent riders include the Suzuki factory squad of John Hopkins and class-rookie Chris Vermuelen, both of whom benefit from the improved Bridgestone rubber this year. The Suzuki machine, however, still seems slightly off the pace and will need some serious development before these riders will be podium contenders in 2006. Vermuelen, by the way, has proven to be a quick study at tracks he has never seen before.
Casey Stoner also comes up from the 250 class to MotoGP this year aboard a Honda from a satelite team. Stoner is very quick, and beat Pedrosa straight-up in the 250 class more than once. Stoner has been injured during some of the pre-series testing, however, and will be at a bit of a disadvantage as the series opens this weekend.
So, behind Rossi, it is a difficult pick. In our opinion, the contenders for podium spots will be Melandri, Hayden, Pedrosa, Colin Edwards, Nakano, Gibernau and his Ducati teammate Loris Capirossi. A dark horse could be former world champ Kenny Roberts, Jr. aboard a Honda-powered chassis provided by his father’s team. We can’t wait for Jerez!
