Ricky Carmichael wrapped up the 250cc Supercross title at Houston last weekend, and with only one round left in the supercross season, the focus has definitely switched to the 2005 Outdoor Nationals. With that in mind, here’s my view of how things will go down outdoors this year.
Carmichael has to be considered the strongest contender for the outdoor title. RC is an 8-time outdoor national champion, has won every outdoor championship he ever contested, and not only is he the only rider in history ever to win every moto of every race for an entire outdoor season, he’s done it twice. His two perfect seasons show his ability to push the limit and ride hard without crashing, and he is one of the few riders on the circuit with the conditioning level to run nearly the same lap times at the end of the race as he did at the beginning.
We don’t expect Carmichael to win every race this year, but we will be surprised if he loses the championship. Ricky does have two obstacles to overcome, however, and both of them are related to his new Suzuki ride.
First, Ricky will have to get used to the characteristics of the new Suzuki RMZ450, which Sebastien Tortelli has been developing throughout the SX season while Carmichael raced the RM250. However, Ricky didn’t seem to have much trouble getting used to his RM250 before the SX season, and we don’t think the RMZ will prove any more challenging to him. He might prove more challenging to the RMZ, however, and therein lies the second obstacle. While the RMZ is by all reports a high-quality machine, being pounded on for a 30 minute + 2 lap outdoor moto by hard-charging Ricky Carmichael will be much more demanding for the bike than going around a supercross track (in cool night air, with few long full-throttle sections) under Tortelli. Even one mechanical DNF could shatter Carmichael’s championship hopes for the season.
Most people expect that Ricky’s main challenger will be 250 class rookie James Stewart, and we tend to agree with them. You’d have to have been living under the proverbial rock to have missed James’ blistering outdoor speed, and the young Kawasaki rider will certainly be battling for race wins this season.
The question about James is this: can he hang with Carmichael through the entire length of an outdoor moto? We have already mentioned Carmichael’s physical fitness; Stewart, by contrast, has shown some signs of fading or fatiguing towards the end of the shorter supercross mains during the 05 season. This does not bode well for his staying power outdoors. Nevertheless, James is likely to defeat RC at least a few times during the season, but we doubt it will be enough to earn him the championship.
Chad Reed is another contender for race wins – last year, Reed and his YZ450 were the only ones in the same time zone as Carmichael outdoors, and he was clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. He seems to have stepped up the pace even further during the second half of this year’s supercross season, and if he can carry that momentum into Hangtown he will prove to be a formidable adversary for Carmichael and Stewart.
The last rider we can see being part of the lead pack is Kevin Windham. Two years ago Windham was the only rider to challenge Ricky outdoors, and it’s because of him that Carmichael’s two perfect seasons were not consecutive. However, he seemed to fall behind Reed and Carmichael during the 2004 nationals, and the same was true for most of this year’s SX season. Recently, though, Windham has shown signs of waking up, and if he can continue that trend he may be able to move back into contention for wins outdoors. He certainly has the innate speed to run at the front, it is merely a question of whether or not he is “on his game”.
Carmichael’s teammate Sebastien Tortelli would deserve mention here, but he recently injured his wrist and will miss the first few rounds of the outdoor series – effectively taking him out of title contention.
There are many other talented racers contesting the 250cc class this year, but none of them seem to have the same speed outdoors as the four riders I have mentioned above. That is not to say that no one else will get on the podium, however – I just can’t see anyone else winning races or the championship. It should be exciting enough just watching to see if anyone can challenge RC this year!
